Data Doesn’t Lie, But It Can Surprise

Every fantasy player watches highlights. But real winners watch trends: the subtle shifts in playcalling, target share, and efficiency that turn ordinary players into week-winners.

This year, something’s changing: NFL teams are running the ball more and more effectively. The league-wide run rate is up 3.4% compared to 2023.

Even pass-heavy offenses like the Bills and Eagles are dialing up more rushes since they have elite running backs in James Cook and Saquon Barkley. That trend could swing the balance back toward running backs in fantasy scoring, especially volume-driven backs with goal-line usage.

The League-Wide Pass and Run Rates in 2021. (sharpfootballstats.com)

RBs vs WRs: The Numbers Are Closer Than You Think

Side-by-side fantasy PPR scoring chart for RBs and WRs in Weeks 1–3 of the 2024 NFL season.
Two charts comparing top-15 fantasy PPR scoring for RBs and WRs in early 2024. (fftoolbox.fulltimefantasy.com)

In 2023, wide receivers dominated early fantasy boards, and rightfully so. But in 2025, the running back bounce-back is real.

Through the first three weeks of preseason data and early projections, the average top-15 RB is expected to score 1.9 more fantasy points per game than the average top-15 WR. That gap widens in non-PPR formats.

And while receivers still hold the crown in boom potential, RBs are outpacing WRs in consistency, especially players like James Cook, Blake Corum, and David Montgomery, who anchor high-touch, run-heavy systems.

If your draft strategy was “WR-WR or bust,” it might be time to switch.

Fantasy Risers, Fallers, and What’s Driving the Movement

A “Stock Up / Stock Down” board with players like C.J. Stroud, David Njoku, and Jordan Addison moving in opposite directions.
Fantasy stock board showing risers and fallers heading into the 2025 season. (Original)

Based on Score+, SportAI’s value metric backed by AI analysis and recent usage trends, here are 3 risers and 3 fallers heading into the heart of draft season:

📈 Risers:

C.J. Stroud (QB, Texans): Efficient in camp, elite WR weapons, and a projected top-8 fantasy schedule. The Texans have invested in their offense — now they just need to fix the line.
David Njoku (TE, Browns): Second in red-zone targets during preseason, with rookie RBs suggesting he will have a larger workload.
Ty Chandler (RB, Vikings): Averaging 4.9 YPC in preseason play and could be a sneaky pick behind Aaron Jones.

📉 Fallers:

Christian Watson (WR, Packers): Still recovering from season-ending knee surgery and is losing target share to Reed, Doubs, and Golden.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, Bills): Less involved in 12-personnel sets than expected and disappointed last year despite high expectations.
Jordan Addison (WR, Vikings): Suspended for the first three games of the season and also underperformed last year despite being the clear number two option in a pass-heavy offense.

The trends here are not hype: they’re data-backed. Watching usage is everything.

Defense: Fantasy Value ≠ Real-World Dominance

Venn diagram showing defenses good in fantasy, real life, and both (e.g. Cowboys = both; Jets = real life only; Saints = fantasy).
Venn diagram comparing fantasy vs real-world defense performance. (Original)

Defenses are tricky in fantasy because real-life dominance doesn’t always equal fantasy scoring.

Take the Jets: elite pass defense, few points allowed… but they rarely create turnovers or score. That makes them mediocre in fantasy.

Meanwhile, the Saints and Commanders routinely generate sacks and defensive TDs even though they’re middle-tier NFL units. Fantasy players care about turnovers, sacks, and pick-sixes, not just yards allowed.

The holy grail? The Cowboys. With Micah Parsons wrecking QBs — although that future is uncertain now — and a ball-hawking secondary, they were top-3 in both real-world efficiency and fantasy scoring last year. Keep targeting defenses that attack and perform.

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Want to Learn About the Most Disappointing NFL Teams? Read here

Biggest Winners of the 2025 NFL Free Agency Frenzy? Read here

SportAI’s Drop the Mic

“Stats don’t lie. But if you don’t know what to look for, you’ll get lied to anyway.” — Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys

Drop the Mic is a segment that features a funny quote at the end of each blog post!

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2025 NFL Risers, Fallers, and What the Data Says