The Effect of Two High Safeties on Fantasy Football

(Source: espn.com Photograph by ESPN Date: November 24th, 2024)

During the 2024 NFL season, the resurgence of the running game has significantly improved teams like the Eagles, Ravens, and Commanders, allowing them to be playoff and championship contenders. On the other hand, there has been a dip in passing performance, such as Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins, who have failed to establish their deep ball game this year.

What Are Two-High Safety Defenses?

(Source: bigblueview.com Photograph by bigblueview Date: June 7th, 2020)

NFL defenses have many strategies for stopping the opposing offense. First, there is “stacking the box,” or putting a lot of players near the line of scrimmage to stop the run and apply pressure on the offensive line and quarterback.

However, many modern offenses are pass-heavy, so defenses also run pass-coverage formations. These formations fit into two categories: man-to-man, with defense players following a certain player, and zone defense when players protect a specific area rather than a player.

Teams also blend these two strategies, an example is when the two-high safety formation is implemented. In this defense, there are the defensive backs, who cover the receivers, linebackers who guard the middle of the field, and two safeties who each cover one half of the field.

As a result, speedy wide receivers like Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson cannot streak down the sidelines, and short passes are covered, leaving the offense with no options if the coverage is performed correctly.

Still, the two-high safety defense can be beaten by offensive playcalls like a post-corner route or running back draws. Also, one- and three-high safeties are popular formations defenses employ that lessen the impact of the two-high safety coverage.

Breaking Records, Breaking Defenses: 2024’s Rushing Impact

(Source: operations.nfl.com Photograph by NFL Operations Date: September 25th, 2024)

In 2024, two running backs, Eagle Saquon Barkley and Raven Derrick Henry have already surpassed RB1 statistics from 2023, passing Christian McCaffrey’s 1459 yards. Also, in 2023, 12 players reached 1000 rushing yards. With three weeks left to go in 2024, seven players have already matched that mark.

Regarding team performance, teams like the Eagles and Commanders have exploded in 2024 with over 155 yards per game on average, beating the Ravens, the top rushing team in 2023. Teams have also been more efficient, with four teams in 2024 passing the Ravens’ top-ranked 5.1 average yards per carry.

Ultimately, the rising popularity of deep coverage-oriented formations like the two-high safety has allowed rushing to help teams dominate and become playoff or Super Bowl contenders, such as the Commanders and Eagles.

Grounded in Reality: The Underperformance of 2024 Passing Offenses

(Source: operations.nfl.com Photograph by NFL Operations Date: September 25th, 2024)

On the other hand, 2024 passing offenses have struggled with two exceptions, the Bengals and Lions. The Bengals are experiencing a historic Joe Burrow season wasted by a horrendous defense and the Lions are stomping all over the NFC, blowing out teams consistently.

The other 30 NFL teams have struggled to establish an overpowering passing offense that can shred through defenses. Surprisingly, the Miami Dolphins, the top passing team in 2023, have fallen to 14th in 2024 due to their inability to cement the deep threat in their offense despite having elite weapons such as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

These teams are on average, twenty yards or more lower than teams from 2023 in yards per game. Also in 2024, the NFL is averaging fewer points per game by the passing offense than in 2023. Still, leaguewide averages are about the same since organizations like the Giants and Panthers performed horribly before improving by about 20 yards per game this year.

Averages have also been down for individual quarterbacks except for Joe Burrow, with all but two performing worse than the seventh-best QB in 2023, Patrick Mahomes, in yards per game at around 261.4.

Quarterbacks are also projected to take more sacks on average than in 2023, suggesting that their decreasing offensive output could be due to failing offensive lines rather than the two-high safety defense.

The Fantasy Ripple Effect of Two-High Safety Defenses

(Source: buffalorumblings.com Photograph by Buffalo Rumblings Date: October 2nd, 2021)

Intriguingly, the top three QBs in 2024 have been dual-threat players who have taken advantage of the increasing number of rushing opportunities. This trend demonstrates the effect of deep-coverage defensive formations like the two-high safety and how they have stopped pocket passers from performing well.

There is also a large dropoff after Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson for QBs in 2024, separated them by 30 or more points, reinforcing that offenses have failed to capitalize on executing a dominant pass offense.

There are also a lot of RBs in 2024 that have been performing well but it is likely none will catch up to Christian McCaffrey’s insane 2023 numbers due to his two-way versatility. Their improving numbers are a sign that the two-high safety has been negatively affecting passing offense, but boosting the value of running backs.

Wrapping Up: The Impact of Two-High Safety

(Source: palmbeachpost.com Photograph by Troy Taormina, Troy Taormina-Imagn Images Date: December 18th, 2024)

Overall, teams have been struggling to establish an excellent passing offense because of these adapting defensive schemes employing multiple safeties to defend the deep threat. This has affected quarterbacks as well and has made dual-threat players increasingly more valuable.

Leaguewide statistics are up for running backs and down for quarterbacks and passing offenses, barring any significant changes in the last three weeks of the 2024 regular season. More teams are improving their run game and becoming playoff contenders as a result while pass-heavy teams from 2023 like the Dolphins have floundered in 2024.

In the end, the Two-High safety defense is just one example of how defenses have attempted to stop explosive passing offenses. However, it has been at the expense of allowing the re-emergence of the rushing game.

(SportAI Inc TM)

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