2024 Fantasy Football Faceoff: Kickers vs Tight Ends – Who Delivers?

Just three weeks into the NFL season, there has been a game-changing surprise in fantasy football. Although week three offered spectacular performances from Cole Kmet and Dallas Goedert, the tight end position is becoming less valuable than the kicker position, with many top-tier tight ends underperforming.

(Athlete: Dallas Goedert Source: nytimes.com Photograph by Bo Wolf, Date: October 6th, 2022)

Clutch Kicks vs End Zone Dominance: Fantasy Football’s 2024 Kicker-Tight End Debate

In 2024,** kickers outperformed tight ends** in weeks one and two, with top performances over 25 points. On the other hand, tight ends performed well in week three, with top games scoring over 25 points.

However, the top tight ends in week three were mid-tier options Dallas Goedert and Cole Kmet, suggesting that the position is volatile and unpredictable in 2024. Also, star tight ends like Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews have been quite disappointing in 2024, highlighting that many early-round draft picks are becoming busts.

(Source: fantasyfootballanalytics.net)

The projections graph above showcases how tight ends have a small range for VOR (Value Over Replacement), suggesting little potential for breakout campaigns in 2024. Thus, the tight end position may be talented. Still, the little variation in the position’s estimates implies there may be no significantly elite tight ends that can outperform replacement-level tight ends significantly.

On the contrary, since kickers are chosen in the late rounds, they provide serious value for any fantasy manager looking to win their league. Kickers also have many opportunities for field goals, especially in close games or if they are on an inefficient offensive team such as the Washington Commanders.

Therefore, it is crucial to target kickers who receive ample chances on their team to kick field goals and extra points.

(Athlete: Austin Seibert Source: sportingnews.com Photograph by sportingnews, Date: September 15th, 2024)

Historical Trends and Kicker Tiers

In the past two years, tight ends have ended the season with more points than kickers. Still, their high season scores are due to the PPR scoring standards, which favor receiving positions over kickers, rewarding them one point per reception.

Surprisingly, in 2024, four kickers are performing better than the TE1, strengthening the argument that they can be better than tight ends. Kickers also have consistent workloads since many teams kick field goals often. Contrastingly, tight ends have shaky production due to RBs and WRs taking their targets.

There has also been an influx of fresh kicker talent, such as superstar Brandon Aubrey and Sophomore Jake Moody, who are fantastic options for fantasy teams. These young kickers demonstrate that NFL teams are investing in better kickers, suggesting they should receive plenty of field goals and extra point attempts.

Historical data also highlights that they are kickers can be split up into tiers, similar to the other fantasy football positions. These tiers are significant because teams should aim for an elite kicker rather than a subpar option.

In 2023, only four kickers: Brandon Aubrey, Dustin Hopkins, Nick Folk, and Ka’imi Fairbairn completed over 95% of their attempts or were 100% on 50-yard or more long field goals. These long-distance field goal attempts are significant because they offer the most points, but kickers also need accuracy.

Therefore, these four kickers can be considered elite, while there are also other amazing options for managers like Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker.

(Athlete: Brandon Aubrey Source: nypost.com Photograph by Getty Images, Date: August 28th, 2023)

Kickers Supported by Advanced Data Analytics + Defensive Impact

Kickers are backed up by score+, a unique metric generated by SportAI algorithms that projects future fantasy performance relative to other players using advanced metrics, reinforcing that kickers are crucial to winning.

Surprisingly, there is a six-point gap between Brandon Aubrey, the K1, and Dustin Hopkins, the K2, underlining that Brandon Aubrey should be everyone’s top target for a kicker. He is known for his booming leg and ability to accurately make long-distance field goals, converting on all of his attempts in 2023.

Managers should target kickers with a score+ of over 75 because these five kickers are top-tier, proven by their past statistics and current performance. These kickers also have a better score+ compared to the QBs, capturing their value as consistent scorers for their fantasy teams.

Kickers can also impact defensive stats because of the NFL’s new kickoff rules, allowing the kicking team to be closer to the receiving team. Also, kickers can influence the starting position of the opposing team more easily with the recent rule changes, implying that they can boost their own team’s defensive stats.

Therefore, fantasy managers should pick up defenses with an elite or great kicker on their team since the defense is more likely to limit the opposing offense if their starting position is consistently deep.

(Athlete: Dustin Hopkins Source: dawgsbynature.com Photograph by Barry Shuck, Date: October 20th, 2023)

Kickers vs Tight Ends Summary

Kickers are becoming more relevant in 2024 due to amazing performances, increased talent, and renewed kickoff rules. On the other hand, tight ends have disappointed managers in 2024, especially top selections like Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, and Travis Kelce.

Kickers with an elite percentage of field goal completion or extreme success from long-distance attempts are top-tier options that are a must-have for any fantasy football team. These kickers can transform a manager’s odds and become the league-winning pickup.

The data analytics also support the rise of kickers and they are even more valuable than quarterbacks according to score+. Ultimately, invest in an elite kicker* and watch how your fantasy team **consistently defeats your opponent weekly due to clutch outings from your kicker.

(SportAI Inc TM)

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Seribert used a tree instead of uprights to practice his kicking, “I just tell myself to hit the tree”-Austin Seibert

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