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(Athlete: Patrick Mahomes Source: cnn.com Photograph by Chris Unger Getty Images, Date: January 10th, 2023)
During the fantasy football season, players can end up as busts if they underperform.
For example, in 2023, Patrick Mahomes was likely the first or second QB drafted but ended the year as QB7. As a result, teams who picked up Mahomes may have missed out on other assets such as Ceedee Lamb, who was the best wide receiver.
Thus, knowing about and avoiding busts can help fantasy football managers draft the best-performing players.
Potential QB Bust
In 2023, C.J. Stroud exceeded all expectations during his rookie season, finishing as the 9th best QB. However, he may underperform his current ADP and disappoint managers who draft him in 2024.
Stroud’s ADP of around 50 makes him a top-6 QB in the draft, but he is unproven against top defenses. For example, he threw for no touchdowns and 333 yards in total against the Ravens and Jets in 2023, significantly worse than any other games.
Moreover, Stroud and the Texans will face much tougher competition, specifically five top-ten defenses in the Cowboys, Jets, Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills. Accordingly, Stroud may struggle against these teams and flop.
Therefore, passing on Stroud and picking up later options such as Justin Herbert or Caleb Williams would be better.
(Athlete: C.J. Stroud Source: on3.com Photograph by Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports, Date: July 31st, 2024)
Top RB Bust
Similarly, another top second-year player could end up as a 2024 bust: De’Von Achane. In 2023, Achane was a league-winner who went late or undrafted for most teams.
However, his noteworthy performance was mostly due to breakaway carries of 15 or more yards, representing 54.3% of his total rushing yards. His luck is way ahead of Breece Hall, who placed second with 40.4%.
Also, Achane performed tremendously against the Giants and Broncos, who had two of the four worst run defenses in the NFL. As a result, with a harder schedule and less luck, Achane may significantly underperform his ADP of around 22, ranking him as the 8th-best RB.
Therefore, drafting a top RB before Achane may be the best move, and then picking up a sleeper like Zach Moss, who we identified as a potential 2024 league-winner.
(Athlete: De’Von Achane, Source: thefalcoholic.com Photograph by William McFadden, Date: February 9th, 2024)
Top WR Bust
In 2023, Drake London led the Falcons’ wide receivers as the clear WR1, but he still finished as the 42st-best WR in fantasy. In 2024, London will now have Kirk Cousins as his QB, but he may not help him reach his top-ten WR ADP.
Also, London has to compete with many other weapons on the Falcons’ offense, such as Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts. Pitts is poised to bounce back after having the worst catchable target rate among tight ends with 50 or more targets.
On the other hand, London had an above-average catchable target rate of 71.46%, 37th among 80 wide receivers with 50 or more targets. London also has high expectations since his ADP of 15 needs him to be the next Justin Jefferson, which he may not fulfill.
Likewise, London’s Score+, a unique metric generated by SportAI algorithms that projects future fantasy performance relative to other players using advanced metrics, is 54.99, ranking him 36th among all wide receivers, well below his current ADP price.
Overall, London’s high ADP makes him not a worthwhile pick because of the players he must compete with and the impending regression of his catchable target rate.
(Athlete: Drake London, Source: thefalcoholic.com Photograph by William McFadden, Date: February 9th, 2024)
Top TE Bust
In 2023, Trey McBride was the clear number one option for the Arizona Cardinals after Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz got injured. However, Marvin Harrison Jr., the top WR in the 2024 draft, will lower McBride’s targets.
McBride also has to compete with RB James Connor, suggesting he will likely not be the number-one target for QB Kyler Murray.
McBride’s high ADP makes him the fourth TE off the board, ranking him ahead of proven players like Mark Andrews and George Kittle, the second-best TE in 2023.
Similarly, McBride’s Score+ is 81.7, ranking him 7th among all TEs. There is also a large dropoff between David Njoku, who has a Score+ of 96.85, and McBride’s 81.7, grouping him with other lower-tier options like Cole Kmet and Jake Ferguson, suggesting his current ADP makes him an overpay.
Therefore, McBride will have to outperform Andrews and Kittle to match his top-four TE ADP, a tall task for McBride on a struggling Cardinals team.
(Athlete: Trey McBride Source: outsports.com Photograph by Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports Date: Dec 31, 2023)
2024 Fantasy Football Busts Summary
The 2024 NFL season will feature exciting players, but there will also be underperformers who disappoint their fantasy football managers. These players can determine whether a manager loses or wins their league.
C.J. Stroud is the potential QB bust because of his unproven track record against tough defenses in 2023, which he will face more of in 2024.
De’Von Achane is the top RB bust since he had unmatched luck in 2023 with over 54% of his rushing yards coming from breakaway carries of 15 yards or more, 15% more than second-place.
Drake London is the top WR Bust because of the many weapons on the Falcons’ offense and his ADP of 15, making him an overpay because of his imminent regression in catchable pass rate.
Finally, Trey McBride is the potential TE Bust because of the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Cardinals’ offense and his top-four ranking, implying he needs to outperform proven players like Mark Andrews and George Kittle, the second-best TE in 2023.
(SportAI Inc TM)
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2024 League-Winning Sleepers
Tired of Busts? Learn about 2024 League-Winning Sleepers here.
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